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An example: coin-tossing Early surrender; the ability to forfeit half your wager against a face or ace before the dealer checks for blackjack. Are you more likely to win the lottery by choosing the same numbers every time, or by choosing different numbers every time? (Answer: you are equally likely with either strategy. In reality, you may be better off choosing numbers in such a way as to reduce the risk of splitting the jackpot.) PokerPoker is a microcosm of all we admire and disdain about capitalism and democracy. It can be rough-hewn or polished, warm or cold, charitable and caring or hard and impersonal. It is fickle and elusive, but ultimately it is fair, and right, and just. - Lou Krieger D = Double The Theory of Blackjack, Peter Griffin, 1996 (1979), ISBN 0929712129 Modern online virtual wheels come in both varieties. Virtual Roulette wheels are programs that utilize random number generating technology to govern the motions of the wheel. This gives the wheel the randomness it needs so that outcomes are difficult, some say impossible, to predict. Examples [edit] This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Quotations
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In some LV Strip casinos you may still be able to find the older version of the multi-deck shoe game, where dealer stands on soft 17; those are usually high minimum ($50 or more) tables. This version is much more advantageous to the player, but requires a slightly modified basic strategy table. Basic strategy for other decks. Mathematics of blackjack Poker is a godless game, full of random pain. - Andy Bloch Double down: Double the wager, take exactly one more card, and then stand. The bank is at the outset put up to auction, i.e. belongs to the player who will undertake to risk the largest amount. In some circles, the person who has first set down his name on the list of players has the right to hold the first bank, risking such amount as he may think proper. Million Dollar Blackjack, Ken Uston, 1981 This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. By the time I'd played the required number of hands, my initial 200 credits had increased to 315, which gave me a total profit of ?215. Not bad for about an hour's work (not that I'd call it work). [edit] In March, 1400 Gambling Clubs in Australia removed ATM machines from the gaming area to help curb problem gambling. I think the U S casinos may have to someday address this issue as well. Maybe if it wasn't so easy to gamble with borrowed money we would be better off. Credit card companies could avoid lawsuits like Mr. Marino's by not allowing people to use their cards for online gambling.
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